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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Closed Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.