🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."